Market
After solid gains in previous couple of month in May Russian equity market took a breath – Micex index lost about 3% and RTS Index fallen 4%. Despite oil prices traded around $ 50 for Brent ruble lost about 2% against US dollar. The main reason was emerging markets weakness as good macro data from US assumed possible rate hike by the FED in near future.
The best performing sector of the May was Utilities – industry index gained about 5% thanks for rally in Inter RAO (+9%) and another great surge in FSK EES (+29%!). Note that in YTD terms shares more than double – the only one big news which happens with the Company was the dividend declaration with implying yield on current levels around 10%. I have a caution view on sector prospects after big run and stick to my only utility name in portfolio – E.On Russia.
The worst performer of the month was Oil&Gas sector that driven mostly by two Large Caps – Gazprom and Rosneft. In my opinion the main point of huge underperformance of these names was unhappy end of dividend saga (State failed to extract 50% of net profit).
Portfolio performance
In May portfolio take back some part of underperformance in March-April – Fund gained about 2% vs Micex lost 3%. In YTD terms Fund returned 7% against +7.8% of benchmark.
The best performers in last month was Bashneft preffered (company announced 50% dividend payout ratio), Sberbank preferred shares (thanks for the big move in common stocks on nice financials for 1Q) and NOVATEK.
The only one change in investment portfolio in May was exclusion of Surgutneftegas prefs – in light of significant ruble appreciation YTD dividend story was over at least before autumn.
Prospects
The whole portfolio is currently trading at a P/E multiplier of 9.5Х and 6.5Х for the current year and next year respectively.
I prefer to stick to the current portfolio structure, but am always looking for new ideas.