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September was generally flat month for the Russian equities in ruble terms – Micex index walking around 2000 points for a whole month while ruble appreciated by 3% on FED decision and surprising OPEC cut. In dollar terms market gained another 3% that brings YTD performance to solid 30% figure. Oil prices move closer to $50 per barrel mark on OPEC.
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In August Russian equities showed relatively good results versus global markets – RTS index added 2.4% while global stocks ended flat and emerging markets gained about 1%. The main source of outperformance was oil prices which has been resurrected after sharp fall in July. Ruble was strong and added about 1% against US dollar and ruble-denominated Micex Index gained about 1.4% for a month.
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Russian equities and ruble showed relative strength against sharp fall in oil prices – Brent declined through the month by 15% to the $ 40 per barrel while RTS lost less than 1%. Taking into account the weakening of ruble by 5% versus US Dollar Micex Index in ruble terms gained about 3% for the month.
The main theme for the global markets in July was expectation of further soft money policy by biggest Central Banks – it gave some support to risky assets like Emerging markets.
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Despite of massive news flow June was the flattest month for Russian equities this year – Micex index lost less than 1% while dollar-denominated RTS gained about 3%. Oil prices stayed in narrow range $ 45-50 per barrel for all June after sharp rally in previous couple of month and ruble gained about 3% versus US Dollar. Brexit theme played a big role in global market movements but in currently looks like short-lived shock.
Market
After solid gains in previous couple of month in May Russian equity market took a breath – Micex index lost about 3% and RTS Index fallen 4%. Despite oil prices traded around $ 50 for Brent ruble lost about 2% against US dollar. The main reason was emerging markets weakness as good macro data from US assumed possible rate hike by the FED in near future.
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April was another great month for Russian equities and ruble as oil prices climbed on hopes that global market will reach balance sooner than later. RTS index added 8.5% in a month and recorded about 25% YTD in US Dollar terms and well outpaced MSCI EM (+6.5%). Oil prices approached $50 per barrel level even after failure of freeze agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Ruble was strong in April and appreciated against US Dollar another 3.5% and more than 10% YTD. That’s why Micex index April performance was not so great in ruble terms – “only” about 4%.
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March was the great month for Russian equities – RTS Index added about 10% and now about +15% YTD – one of the best performer across emerging markets. Oil prices continued to rebound from multi-years low on hopes that global supply glut may fade away in nearest future. Dovish FED with strong oil helps ruble – local currency appreciated against US dollar more than 9% in March. Not a lot of returns for local investors in ruble terms – Micex Index added just shy 1%.
RTS : 868 | Brent spot: 38.9 | RUB/USD : 67.5
Previous five trading days brought just small changes to the global equities – MSCI World added around 0.5%. Emerging markets showed generally the same results. In lack of new ideas investors watching what Yellen&Co says about FED future policy. Last night speech bring some relief to bulls — In a speech to the Economic Club of New York, Yellen said it is appropriate for U.S. central bankers to “proceed cautiously” in raising rates.
RTS : 883 | Brent spot: 40.5 | RUB/USD : 67.50
Last week was completely great for equities, especially emerging markets – dovish FED statement provided additional risk on turn. As the result global equities gained about 1.5% for last five trading sessions as well as EM printed +5% and turning back to the positive territory YTD. Russia was the best performer – RTS added 6% thanks for oil prices topped $ 40 level.
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RTS : 827 | Brent spot: 38.2 | RUB/USD : 71.00
The past week has brought nothing special to investors in emerging markets — MXEF added just 0.4%, while oil prices fallen about 5% after long winning steak from january lows.