Monthly portfolio review – September 2016


September was generally flat month for the Russian equities in ruble terms – Micex index walking around 2000 points for a whole month while ruble appreciated by 3% on FED decision and surprising OPEC cut. In dollar terms market gained another 3% that brings YTD performance to solid 30% figure. Oil prices move closer to $50 per barrel mark on OPEC.

Читать далее «Monthly portfolio review – September 2016»

Monthly portfolio review – August 2016


In August Russian equities showed relatively good results versus global markets – RTS index added 2.4% while global stocks ended flat and emerging markets gained about 1%. The main source of outperformance was oil prices which has been resurrected after sharp fall in July. Ruble was strong and added about 1% against US dollar and ruble-denominated Micex Index gained about 1.4% for a month.

Читать далее «Monthly portfolio review – August 2016»

Monthly portfolio review – July 2016


Russian equities and ruble showed relative strength against sharp fall in oil prices – Brent declined through the month by 15% to the $ 40 per barrel while RTS lost less than 1%. Taking into account the weakening of ruble by 5% versus US Dollar Micex Index  in ruble terms gained about 3% for the month.

The main theme for the global markets in July was expectation of further soft money policy by biggest Central Banks – it gave some support to risky assets like Emerging markets.

Читать далее «Monthly portfolio review – July 2016»

Monthly portfolio review – June 2016


Despite of massive news flow June was the flattest month for Russian equities this year – Micex index lost less than 1% while dollar-denominated RTS gained about 3%. Oil prices stayed in narrow range $ 45-50 per barrel for all June after sharp rally in previous couple of month and ruble gained about 3% versus US Dollar. Brexit theme played a big role in global market movements but in currently looks like short-lived shock.

Читать далее «Monthly portfolio review – June 2016»

Monthly portfolio review – May 2016


After solid gains in previous couple of month in May Russian equity market took a breath – Micex index lost about 3% and RTS Index fallen 4%. Despite oil prices traded around $ 50 for Brent ruble lost about 2% against US dollar. The main reason was emerging markets weakness as good macro data from US assumed possible rate hike by the FED in near future.

Читать далее «Monthly portfolio review – May 2016»

Monthly portfolio review – April 2016


April was another great month for Russian equities and ruble as oil prices climbed on hopes that global market will reach balance sooner than later. RTS index added 8.5% in a month and recorded about 25% YTD in US Dollar terms and well outpaced MSCI EM (+6.5%). Oil prices approached $50 per barrel level even after failure of freeze agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Ruble was strong in April and appreciated against US Dollar another 3.5% and more than 10% YTD. That’s why Micex index April performance was not so great in ruble terms – “only” about 4%.

Читать далее «Monthly portfolio review – April 2016»

Monthly portfolio review – March 2016


March was the great month for Russian equities – RTS Index added about 10% and now about +15% YTD – one of the best performer across emerging markets.  Oil prices continued to rebound from multi-years low on hopes that global supply glut may fade away in nearest future. Dovish FED with strong oil helps ruble – local currency appreciated against US dollar more than 9% in March. Not a lot of returns for local investors in ruble terms – Micex Index added just shy 1%.

Читать далее «Monthly portfolio review – March 2016»

Market update: No ideas, no direction

RTS : 868 | Brent spot: 38.9 | RUB/USD : 67.5


Previous five trading days brought just small changes to the global equities – MSCI World added around 0.5%. Emerging markets showed generally the same results. In lack of new ideas investors watching what Yellen&Co says about FED future policy. Last night speech bring some relief to bulls — In a speech to the Economic Club of New York, Yellen said it is appropriate for U.S. central bankers to “proceed cautiously” in raising rates.

Читать далее «Market update: No ideas, no direction»

Market update: Dovish FED provides some risk-on


RTS : 883 | Brent spot: 40.5 | RUB/USD : 67.50

Last week was completely great for equities, especially emerging markets – dovish FED statement provided additional risk on turn. As the result global equities gained about 1.5% for last five trading sessions as well as EM printed +5% and turning back to the positive territory YTD. Russia was the best performer – RTS added 6% thanks for oil prices topped $ 40 level.

Читать далее «Market update: Dovish FED provides some risk-on»

Market update: Flat week ahead FOMC

RTS : 827 | Brent spot: 38.2 | RUB/USD : 71.00

The past week has brought nothing special to investors in emerging markets — MXEF added just 0.4%, while oil prices fallen about  5% after long winning steak from january lows.

Читать далее «Market update: Flat week ahead FOMC»